mdn special: Congress losing its base in Delhi, says party survey

Party likely to win only 20 seats out of the 70, says a survey by Delhi Congress.Congress president Sonia Gandhi has been heard saying at several party forums that Delhi does not understand her policies. While she has been underscoring the UPA government’s achievements in social sectors, she is probably right as the Congress base in urban India is eroding fast ahead of the general elections.

A pointer to this is a survey conducted by the Delhi Congress Committee that says the party is likely to win 18 to 20 seat out of the 70 seats in the Delhi assembly, indicating that the party is no more popular among the urban voters.

In the 2009 general election, the Congress-led UPA won 115 out of the 201 urban and semi-urban seats. Now, the urban voters are largely disenchanted with the Congress due to scams and issues of corruption and mis-governance being highlighted in the media. Consequently, the findings of the Delhi assembly survey, which are being kept secret, have given the party reasons to worry.

Members of the Delhi Congress have realised that in the current scenario, the party’s political health is not in good. While nobody wants to speak about it openly, Congressmen feel that only a revolutionary change in the city by the Delhi government can change their fate. “Where is the time now to bring that big change in the city? The people are tired with hikes in water and power tariff. The anti-Congress forces are very strong,” said a senior party leader on condition of anonymity.

The party’s defeat in all four by-election in Delhi since the last assembly polls has added to its problems. The party lost 2009 assembly by-election to the BJP. The by-polls were necessitated after sitting Congress MLAs Parvez Hashmi from Okhla and Mahabal Mishra from Matiala were made members of the Rajya Sabha.

In the two municipal by-elections last month, the Congress lost both the wards to the BJP. In both seats, the party lost by a margin of over 3,500 votes. “Losing a ward election by 3,500 votes reflects the poor health of the party,” the leader added.

Making the situation worse is the power tussle between two senior party leaders in Delhi. During a visit to the Delhi Congress office in June this year, party vice-president Rahul Gandhi had asked state party president JP Agarwal and chief minister Sheila Dikshit work in coordination. While Agarwal has been heard speaking for Dikshit on several platforms since then, the response from Dikshit has remained lukewarm. “Currently, there is a lack of coordination within the party, if it continues we will face the same fate as 1993 assembly elections,” said another Congressman. In the 1993 elections, the Congress managed to win only 14 assembly seats.

Congressmen look at the Delhi assembly election as a litmus test for the UPA at the Centre. After losing the 1993 assembly elections in Delhi, the party met with similar fate in the 1996 general election. The Congress managed to win only two out of the seven Delhi parliamentary seats.

The pattern continued till 2009, when after getting 41 seats in Delhi assembly, the Congress got a clear majority in all seven parliamentary constituencies. “The Congress has performed poorly in the municipal elections and all the by-elections. The assembly election will be a precursor to the general elections due next year,” said a party general secretary.